The Colorado GOP might be in for a wipeout
In Colorado it’s essentially become a given that we’re a blue state.
Voted for a Democrat at the presidential level since 2008, one of the only states to consistently move leftward within the Trump era (when almost every other state swung right), state government completely dominated by Democrats, etc.
Our state GOP has slowly been eroded of any real power within the state, and 2026 might be the year whey they get wiped across the board.
Where do they currently stand?
The GOP currently holds 0/2 Senators, 4/8 House seats, 12/35 seats in the State Senate (18 needed for majority), 22/65 State House seats (33 needed for a majority), and hold no statewide offices.
Where is the danger?
As of now they are poised to lose Colorado’s 8th congressional district (CD), CO’s 3rd congressional district is rated a toss-up, and their two “safest seats” CO’s 5th and 4th CDs (partisan leans of R+5.3 and R+14.2 respectively) are hanging by a thread. These major changes are attributed to two things: the gradual leftward shift of Colorado’s suburbs and Democrat’s unusual strength in rural Rocky Mountain towns.
The suburbs were once Republican strongholds, but Jeffco, Arapahoe, Douglas and Adams (El Paso next?) have experienced the most significant shift.
Then came the 2016 presidential election where Donald Trump first took power in the country. Initially the state only went to Hillary Clinton by about 5 points but in 2018 came the first major warning signs of an incoming blue takeover. They lost CO’s 6th CD, at the time made up primarily of Aurora, Brighton, Centennial, and Highlands Ranch, all major suburban areas. They lost it by 9 points when in 2016 the incumbent Republican won it by 8. In 2026 they’re expected to lose it by over 30 points.
Fast forward 2 years to 2020 and you have the election of Lauren Boebert in CO’s 3rd CD, who defeated the incumbent Scott Tipton in the Republican primary. Her and Trump received close to the same vote share in the general election (52% R vs. 46% D), but 2022 saw a significant reversal. She would only win her district by .10% which could be attributed to the democrats strengths in rural counties such as Eagle, Pitkin, Gunnison, and La Plata. Pueblo county has become more conservative due to the rightward shift of Latino voters, but those same voters are showing signs of a reversal back to the Dems which could spell major trouble. The district is now a toss up by most major pollsters, with a tilt towards the Democrats.
The situation became so bad for Boebert she made the controversial move of running in the more conservative 4th district for 2024, which is made up of the heavily rural (and heavily conservative) Eastern Plains, and Douglas County, a formerly reliably red suburban county. But this didn’t solve her problems. She still won by double digits, but she ran behind Trump by around 6 points (he won by 17, she won by 11). You’d expect her to be running maybe a few points behind the 2024 results considering the political environment of 2026, but on average she’s only ahead by 3 points. If 2026 gets any worse she’s going to be in the battle of a lifetime.
The final part of this story ends in Colorado’s 4th CD. The suburbs in Colorado Springs have so far been able to avoid the leftward swing of Colorado at-large. The most recent election results had Donald Trump winning by 9 and Jeff Crank, the incumbent, by 14. That might come to an end in 2026. In the most recent polls it shows both candidates either tied, or the Democrat Jessica Killin with a slim lead. This all comes from what may be a major collapse of support in one of the few remaining Republican-leaning suburbs around the country.
Republican strength in the state is slowly being pushed to Mesa county and the Eastern Plains, but those two areas are not large enough or close enough in distance to create their own reliably Republican district. If support in Douglas and El Paso continues to dwindle as it has, conservative regions of the state will have to rely on the deep blue Denver-Metro and increasingly hostile suburban regions to meet the population requirements.
We are now 6 days away from Election Day. There isn’t much room to push the needle but these races are much tighter than Republicans would like to admit. Colorado has increasingly become out of reach for conservatives, and unless something is done quickly to turn the tide, Republicans will have zero representation by the time 2028 comes around.
